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CAN THE WORLD CONTINUE TO FEED ITSELF?
(Summary of my article published in Radikal Turkish newspaper on 6/6/2008)
While the reasons of crop shortage are still being discussed, wheat yield in 2008 is expected to be at a record level. But it is too soon to celebrate. According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, at the year's end, world crop stocks will be at the lowest level of the last 25 years. Even within the technology optimists, more people start losing fate that the world can continue to feed itself too long.
There are many reasons for this year's scarcity such as unfavorable climatic conditions in large producers, more land diverted to produce bio-diesel crops, high petroleum cost, reduced scientific research. But the most important reason is the fast growing consumption. The world production cannot meet the ever-growing demand anymore.
Agricultural production in the world has continued to increase by fertilizer use, better irrigation, seed improvement, higher efficiency, clearing new land, and such. But, since 1990's, the world production cannot meet the demand; per capita crop production keeps falling continuously. Furthermore it is estimated that, by 2030, the crop demand will double. In spite of land loss due to erosion, over-gazing, urbanization, and the increasing scarcity of water resources, if we can continue to increase world production, per capita crop would still continue to fall. In addition, global climate change is anticipated to increase regional disasters such as droughts and floods. Warming climate may possibly open new land for agriculture, but during the transition, reductions in crop yields seem inevitable. For those who cannot afford the increasing costs, this may mean starvation.
A new agricultural revolution is not plausible either. Except a few places troubled by political/financial crises in Africa and South America, most of world's cultivable land is already being used. In many countries, subsidies are already generously offered. Controversial genetically modified crops may, in the future, allow us to grow rice in salt marshes but they do not promise an increase in crop yield except a few species.
Above all, the security of our food source is at serious risk because ninety percent of us are being fed by only 12 species of crops and 20 species of plants throughout the world. This means that a crop disease can wipe out a harvest across the land. Delicious local tomatoes or wheat are far more important than just to please our taste buds; with their diverse capabilities to resist different conditions, they guarantee the survival of our nourishment sources. Let's remember that diversity is the insurance of survival.
World population today is over 6 billion. China and India comprise 37 percent of it. China alone constitute 22 percent yet, it only has 8 percent of its cultivable land and losing some of it to pollution and fertilizer over-use. Chinese companies are already buying land in Africa because Chine will more and more depend on food imports. Even if the population growth stops, crop need would continue to grow in developing nations due to changing consumption patterns. When a person starts to eat one kilogram of meat instead of one kilogram of crop, the crop demand would be multiplied by 7. Being sufficiently nourished, of course, is a human right, but the world cannot afford large populations to become throw-away-societies. And, we cannot continue to deplete our crucial resources to produce-sell-throw commodities that we do not even need in the first place.
The good news is China and India are providing successful examples of sustainable economies and turning to clean energy resources. As an example, China is producing more fish from rice fields than the sea, closing its dirty coal plants. Lead by the European Union, Kyoto Protocol succeeds in producing a new carbon economy as developed nations realize their share of the responsibility. It appears that nations that cannot control their population growth or consumption, cannot feed themselves, or cannot create sustainable economies will face economical and social instabilities. How long can small havens keep their borders tight?
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